Hoos Going Bowling: Analyzing UVa's Bowl Game Possibilities

Historical Stats & Info

"It is the most important victory of my career." -- Head Coach Dick Voris, after the
Hoos’ 15-12 victory over Duke on September 27, 1958. Voris finished his UVA career
with a record of 1-29.

"We've stopped recruiting young men who want to come here to be students first and
athletes second." -- Former Virginia head coach Sonny Randle, describing his strategy
for turning around UVA's football program

"As the score mounted, to 20-0 and finally 26-0, his movements slowed. With two
minutes to go and South Carolina threatening once more, Voris stood behind several
rows of substitutes, staring at his shoes." -- Sports Illustrated, describing Coach Voris’
stellar coaching performance during the Hoos’ 26-0 loss to South Carolina in 1960

"Really, Texas wasn't as good as I thought they'd be." -- Ted Manly, Virginia's
freshman quarterback, after Texas had spanked the Hoos 68-0

Hoos Going Bowling: Analyzing
UVa's Bowl Game Possibilities

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UVa Football - Random Musings

ESPN's ACC blogger Heather Dinich projects UVa to go to the Music City Bowl -
the ACC's 6th place bowl. I find this annoying, both because of the lack of
respect it implies and the likelihood of it being correct.

SI's Stewart Mandel, however, has us taking the ACC's no. 2 slot in the Chick-fil-A
Bowl, which honestly had never crossed my mind as a possibility. I assumed
they'd take either Clemson or Virginia Tech, without a doubt. But what
complicates matters is the fact that, according to Mandel, the Chick-fil-A is
"almost certainly" going to take Auburn, who Clemson already played this year.
He projects Virginia Tech into the Orange and has Clemson slipping due to the
repeat opponent. I don't believe Virginia has ever gotten a bowl slot higher than
it deserved (outside of the 1991 Sugar Bowl, of course), so I'll believe it when I
see it, but it's fun to think about.

So here's my half-assed, but semi-scientific sounding, analysis of our bowl
possibilities (organized from top down in the bowl pecking order):

ORANGE BOWL:

Analysis: I'll say we have a 40% chance of winning vs. Virginia Tech and a 40%
chance of winning vs. Clemson.

Likelihood: 16%

Possible Opponents: Least shitty Big East team (e.g., West Virginia / Rutgers /
whogivesacrapU)

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL:

Analysis: The only way this happens is apparently in the scenario above, with
Virginia Tech beating us (60% chance) and Clemson (60% chance), putting
Virginia Tech in the Orange, driving Clemson down a couple notches and giving
us the Chick-fil-A bid. If Virginia Tech beats us and loses to Clemson, I'm
assuming Virginia Tech would end up here. So I guess this would have a 36%
chance based on the pure math or my arbitrary probabilities, but I'm going to
assume there's only a 25% chance of Stewart Mandel being right, because I just
don't see us getting some surprisingly good deal.

Likelihood: 9%

Possible Opponents: Auburn or other SEC team

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL:

Analysis: Apparently they're all but certain to take FSU.

Likelihood: 1%

Possible Opponents: Notre Dame, unless they rose to the BCS, in which case
this would be a Big East team

SUN BOWL:

Analysis: My guess - if we beat Virginia Tech and lose to Clemson, Virginia Tech
will go to the Chick-fil-A, FSU will go to Champs, and we'll fall here. So if Mandel
is correct, we might get a better bowl game by losing to Virginia Tech than by
beating Virginia Tech and losing to Clemson. Not that I'd make that trade off. I'd
rather beat Virginia Tech even if it meant we didn't go to a bowl game at all. I'm
not putting this too high though, because I'm not sure a Texas bowl would be too
quick to take us, based on our reputation for not travelling particularly well.

Likelihood: 20%

Possible Opponents: UCLA / Washington / someone from Arizona / Utah

BELK BOWL:

Analysis: My gut feeling is that this is the most likely option. Basically, it would
match our tradition of going to a bowl a couple notches below what our finish
would merit. Plus, we drew well in our previous trips to Charlotte and I think the
organizers would recognize that we'd travel well because of the growing
excitement around the program and close proximity. So if we lose to Virginia
Tech, I think it's a reasonable option, and if we beat Virginia Tech but don't win
the championship, it seems like the farthest we could reasonably fall.

Likelihood: 30%

Possible Opponents: Big East stiff - see Orange Bowl possibilities

MUSIC CITY BOWL:

Analysis: I think this officially falls into the "we-were-robbed" category, which
makes it the second most likely option behind the Belk.

Likelihood: 21%

Possible Opponents: Tennessee, Mississippi State or other low-end SEC team

INDEPENDENCE BOWL:

Analysis: Because we're talking about (1) bowls, and (2) UVa, a complete screw
job, dropping us to the 7th place bowl, can't be completely ruled out.

Likelihood: 2%

Possible Opponents: I don't care enough to look up the affiliation.

MILITARY BOWL:

Analysis: Unfortunately, the ultimate screw job - getting dropped to the 8th place
bowl game - can't be completely ruled out either.

Likelihood: 1%

Possible opponents: All that is good and decent.

Here's my buddy Brian's take on which bowl games are the most likely
destinations for the Hoos. You can follow Brian on Twitter @bhammond.