HoosFootball.com's 3 Fearless Predictions for the 2011 NFL Season

Historical Stats & Info

"It is the most important victory of my career." -- Head Coach Dick Voris, after the
Hoos’ 15-12 victory over Duke on September 27, 1958. Voris finished his UVA career
with a record of 1-29.

"We've stopped recruiting young men who want to come here to be students first and
athletes second." -- Former Virginia head coach Sonny Randle, describing his strategy
for turning around UVA's football program

"As the score mounted, to 20-0 and finally 26-0, his movements slowed. With two
minutes to go and South Carolina threatening once more, Voris stood behind several
rows of substitutes, staring at his shoes." -- Sports Illustrated, describing Coach Voris’
stellar coaching performance during the Hoos’ 26-0 loss to South Carolina in 1960

"Really, Texas wasn't as good as I thought they'd be." -- Ted Manly, Virginia's
freshman quarterback, after Texas had spanked the Hoos 68-0

Hoos in the NFL - HoosFootball.com's
3 Fearless Predictions for the 2011 Season

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UVA Football - Random Musings

Prediction #1: Chris Long Goes Full Cyborg

It seems difficult to believe now, but Chris Long didn't start handing out asshats
the moment he arrived on Grounds back in 2004. In fact, Long recorded a total of
just 3 sacks during his first 2 seasons at UVa. Although his statistics were
rather pedestrian, by the end of his sophomore season Long was starting to
show flashes of what was to come. This momentum carried over into his junior
season in 2006, when he posted career highs in sacks (5), tackles for loss (12)
and total tackles (57), and was selected 2nd Team All-ACC.

After showing steady improvement over his first three seasons, Long went
fucking HAM his senior year. He racked up 14 sacks and 19 tackles for loss,
earned 1st Team All-American honors, was named ACC Defensive Player of the
Year, broke Maryland's quarterback in half, and caused Raycom Sports color
analyst Rick "Doc" Walker to have an ACC-record 24 on-air orgasms.

So why am I telling you this? Well, partially because I've been looking for a
reason to use the expression "going HAM." (As an aside, there appears to be a
healthy linguistic debate as to the derivation and meaning of this expression.
While some scholars - and by "scholars" I mean "people who post stuff on
UrbanDictionary.com" - contend that it derives from the word "mayhem" and
means "to cause disorder," others argue that HAM is an acronym for "Hard As a
Motherfucka." Either way, the point here is that I'm so old and uncool that I have
to look up street lingo on the interwebs.)

So anyway, Chris Long! Why am I talking about his UVa career? Because his
first 3 seasons in the NFL followed a very similar trajectory to his first 3 years at
UVa. After recording a total of 9 sacks during his first 2 seasons with the Rams,
Long started putting it all together in 2010, finishing with career highs in sacks
(8.5), quarterback pressures (an NFL-leading 42.5), passes defended (3), and
forced fumbles (3).

So what's in store for Long in 2011? HAM, MY FRIENDS, GLORIOUS, GLORIOUS
HAM!!!! No, seriously. This is the year that everything comes together for Long,
just like it did during his senior season at UVa - especially now that he's back to
rocking #91. I'm predicting that he finishes with at least 11.0 sacks and just
misses out on his first Pro Bowl.

Prediction #2: Matt Schaub Makes the Leap

By just about any measure, Matt Schaub is the most accomplished NFL
quarterback to come out of the University of Virginia. Among former Hoo QBs, he
has far and away the highest completion percentage (Schaub's 64.9% is tied
with Peyton Manning for 4th highest in NFL history), yards per attempt average (a
full yard higher than both Aaron Brooks and Don Majkowski), and quarterback
rating (91.4, almost 23 points higher than Aaron Brooks' 78.5 rating, which ranks
2nd). Furthermore, by the end of the 2012 season, Schaub will likely have
surpassed Brooks as UVa's all-time leader in attempts, completions, yards, and
touchdown passes.

Despite these accolades, there continues to be one knock against Schaub - he
has never led the Texans to the playoffs. Seriously, people won't shut up about
this. Did you know the Texans' defense gave up the most passing yards (4,280)
and passing touchdowns (33) in the NFL last year? Or that opposing teams
posted a quarterback rating of 100.5 against them? Or that Donovan McNabb
torched them for 426 yards? Donovan McNabb! Did you happen to catch any of
his games last year? He was terrible! (Seriously, I can't believe that guy used to
be, you know, good.) For some reason, people seem to think that all of this is
Schaub's fault.

But good news! This is the Texans' year. With the Colts' Peyton Manning on the
shelf for the foreseeable future and Mrs. Doubtfire look-alike Wade Phillips
shoring up the Texans' defense, the division is there for the taking. I'm predicting
that Schaub not only leads to the Texans to the playoffs, but also gets his first
playoff victory.

Prediction #3: James Farrior & Ronde Barber Call it a Career

James Farrior and Ronde Barber entered the NFL together in 1997, but under
very different circumstances. Farrior, who was viewed as a potential franchise
player, was taken by the Jets with the 8th pick in draft, the 2nd linebacker off the
board. (Peter Boulware went to the Ravens at #4.) Barber, on the other hand,
lasted until the 3rd round, where Tampa Bay selected him with the 66th overall
pick. FIFTEEN defensive backs were drafted ahead of him, including such
luminaries as Tom Knight (#9 overall), Michael Booker (#11), Chris Canty (#29),
Rob Kelly (#33), Torrian Gray (#49), and Kevin Abrams (#54). Hell, Barber wasn't
even the first member of his own family off the board. (The Giants took Tiki with
the 36th pick.)

Despite these disparate beginnings, however, Farrior and Barber have ended up
having very similar careers. They have both been fixtures on their respective
teams for what seems like forever. (Farrior is entering his 10th season with the
Steelers, while Barber has spent his entire 15-year career with the Buccaneers.)
They are both ironmen. (Farrior has started 140 of 144 games in his Steelers
career, including the last 80 in row, while Barber has started 183 consecutive
games, the longest streak by a cornerback in NFL history.) They have both
received numerous individual accolades (Farrior is a 2-time Pro Bowler and a
1-time First Team All-Pro, while Barber is a 5-time Pro Bowler and 3-time First
Team All-Pro) and won championships (Farrior has 3 Super Bowl rings, Barber
has 1). Hell, they even had their breakout seasons the same year. (In 2001,
Farrior finished with 143 tackles, more than double his previous season-high,
while Barber led the NFL with 10 interceptions and was voted to his first Pro
Bowl.)

So why do I think both men will retire after this season? Here's a list of all of the
players from the 1997 draft who are currently on NFL rosters:

James Farrior (Round 1, pick 8)
Tony Gonzalez (Round 1, pick 13)
Ronde Barber (Round 3, pick 66)
Jason Taylor (Round 3, pick 73)
Derrick Mason (Round 4, pick 98)
Al Harris (Round 6, pick 169)

That's it - a total of 6 guys. Taylor and Harris are very, very close to the end of the
line - Taylor is just a situational pass rusher at this point, and Harris played in
only 3 games last season, posting a grand total of 3 tackles. Gonzalez had
arguably his worst season since 1998 last year and has been talking about
retiring for years. Mason had his lowest reception total since 1999 last year and
was released by the Ravens in the offseason before being scooped up by the
Jets.

The fact that Farrior and Barber have played at such a high level for such a long
time is truly remarkable. The fact that they have remained relatively injury-free
while doing so is even more remarkable. But professional football is a young
man's game. Sooner or later, every player either walks away or gets pushed out
the door. I think this is the year both of these proud warriors walk away.